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☆ EU-China trade relations are in a 'slow-motion train accident,' business group says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"What we see right now is the unfolding of a slow-motion train accident," he told reporters at a briefing last week. "That's when trade becomes a security question and I think that is perhaps not fully appreciated in China just yet." There needs to be an honest conversation between Europe and China about what this is going to mean. The EU was China's largest regional trading partner until Southeast Asia recently surpassed it. The U.S. is China's largest trading partner on a single-country basis.

Persons: Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, I've, Markus Herrmann Chen Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, European Union Chamber of Commerce, EU, of Commerce, Investment, China Macro Locations: Hefei, Anhui province, BEIJING, Europe, Beijing, China, Southeast Asia, U.S

☆ StanChart strategist discusses China's CPI target, inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Quite unlikely' that China will hit its CPI inflation target of 3% this year: StanChart strategistBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered, says "our forecast for CPI inflation is only averaging 0.5% in 2024."

Persons: Becky Liu Organizations: Standard Chartered Locations: China

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, Super Micro, Eli Lilly, Lyft, DoorDash, Disney & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

UBS upgrades Norfolk Southern to buy from neutral UBS said it sees margin improvement for the railroad. Goldman Sachs initiates Super Micro as neutral Goldman said the stock is an "AI winner" but that valuation is full right now. UBS reiterates Eli Lilly as buy UBS raised its price target on the stock to $910 per share from $810. UBS reiterates Nvidia as buy UBS said it's sticking with its buy rating after a series of investor meetings with the company." Argus upgrades New York Times to buy from neutral Argus said it sees revenue growth for the newspaper company. "

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Disney, Piper Sandler, Piper, Guggenheim, Baird, SQSP, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, Tesla, underperform Bernstein, Eli Lilly, Wells, Melius, Citi downgrades Ferrari, Jefferies, Evercore, it's, Rosenblatt, Snowflake, Slootman's Organizations: BROS, Guggenheim, GSK, UBS, Norfolk Southern, Micro, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Kyverna Therapeutics, FLT, UDR, Conservative, America Health, RBC, Apple, Citi, Ferrari, Jefferies, BP, Barclays, Barclays downgrades, ISI, Toast Inc, Bank of America, Ball Corp, of America, Broadcom, New York Times Locations: Norfolk, China, New

☆ Evergrande's liquidation crisis won’t be China’s ‘Lehman moment,’ China Beige Book COO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

China Evergrande Group's logo is displayed on a phone screen in this illustration photo taken on September 27, 2021. Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesA liquidation order to property giant China Evergrande liquidation crisis this week deepened concerns about China's struggling real estate sector — but analysts say the spillover will likely be contained, with one saying it might actually be "good news." On Monday, a Hong Kong court issued a liquidation order to the embattled property developer after it failed to reach a restructuring deal with creditors. China Evergrande, once among the country's largest property developers, is the world's most indebted company — with more than $300 billion in liabilities. Still, questions remain on whether China will recognize the Hong Kong court order for Evergrande's liquidation — since most of the company's assets are in the mainland.

Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Shehzad Qazi, Lehman, Qazi, CNBC's, It's, China Evergrande, Evergrande, Linda Chan, Charlene Chu, we've, Chu Organizations: Nurphoto, CNBC, Lehman Brothers, Hong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong, Commerzbank

☆ Evergrande's liquidation crisis won’t be China’s ‘Lehman moment,’ China Beige Book CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China Evergrande Group's logo is displayed on a phone screen in this illustration photo taken on September 27, 2021. Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesA liquidation order to property giant China Evergrande liquidation crisis this week deepened concerns about China's struggling real estate sector — but analysts say the spillover will likely be contained, with one saying it might actually be "good news." On Monday, a Hong Kong court issued a liquidation order to the embattled property developer after it failed to reach a restructuring deal with creditors. In other words, no massive credit event," Qazi told CNBC. China Evergrande, once among the country's largest property developers, is the world's most indebted company — with more than $300 billion in liabilities.

Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Shehzad Qazi, Lehman, Qazi, CNBC's, It's, China Evergrande, Evergrande, Linda Chan, Charlene Chu Organizations: Nurphoto, CNBC, Lehman Brothers, Hong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ Evergrande: 'Real unknown' is how mainland China courts will treat winding-up petition, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvergrande: 'Real unknown' is how mainland China courts will treat winding-up petition, analyst saysCharlene Chu, China macrofinancial senior analyst at Autonomous Research, discusses the Evergrande liquidation order and says "the real question about the winding up petition is to what extent are the mainland authorities going to recognize what was decided in the Hong Kong courts."

Persons: Charlene Chu Organizations: China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ UBS expects the Fed to halve interest rates next year. Here are 3 preferred trades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

UBS has highlighted several stock ideas it favors for 2024, as it forecasts massive cuts to interest rates next year. The investment bank expects the U.S. will see slower economic growth and strong disinflation leading to an interest rate cut of 275 basis points . Given the economic outlook, UBS strategists recommend a number of trades to clients for 2024. All the sectors apart from software trade on bigger discounts than normal against their US peers," the UBS strategists said. To reflect that view, UBS strategists said they favored gaining exposure to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF in 2024.

Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Gerry Fowler, Sean Simonds, KWEB Organizations: UBS, Federal, CNBC, U.S, Investors, China Tech, Internet Technology, CSI China Internet Locations: U.S, China

He also lowered his price target by $6 to $120, implying just 3.9% upside from Tuesday's close. Analyst Shaun Kelley has a $40 price target on shares, implying shares could gain 11.4% from Tuesday's close. Rivian shares jumped more than 7% after the company increased its production forecast for the full year by 2,000 units to 54,000. Datadog shares have produced zero return over the past three years, Murphy noted, with shares down 9% since Oct. 15, 2020. UBS has a neutral rating on Apple and a price target of $190 per share, which implies upside of 4.5%.

Persons: Cowen downgrades Estee, TD Cowen, Estee Lauder, Oliver Chen, Chen, — Hakyung Kim, Shaun Kelley, Kelley, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Neil Mehta, Mehta, There's, Colin Langan, Langan, Piper Sandler, Alexander Potter, Potter, Rivian, Mark Delaney, Morgan Stanley, Jonas, Mark Murphy, Murphy, David Vogt, Vogt, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Tech, UBS, JPMorgan, Revenue, Asia, Bank of America, Industry, Mehta ., Wall Street, Rivian, pullbacks, Pro, Pro Max, Apple Locations: China, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Tuesday's, U.S

☆ Educated Gen Zers in China are choosing not to work. It could be a problem for the US economy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Youth unemployment in China hit a record high of 21% in May. It's a problem not only for China's economy — it could hurt the US, as well. China's economy is on shaky ground as it emerges from very strict lockdown pandemic measures. That's compared to the US youth unemployment rate of 7.4% in May. "The stakes are high for correcting these imbalances, given how important the youth population is to China's economy," the note said.

Persons: There's, —, China —, it's, China's, China — Benn Steil, Steil, Victoria University of Wellington Christian Yao, Alfred Wu, National University of Singapore's Lee, Wu, Goldman Sachs, they're, it'll Organizations: Service, Trade, National Bureau of Statistics, Weibo, China, Council, Foreign Relations, Victoria University of Wellington, China Macroeconomy, New York Times, National University of Singapore's, National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, of Public, NBC News Locations: China, decouple, Japan, United States

☆ Earnings playbook: Your guide to trading another busy week of reports, including Apple and Pfizer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

About 30% of the S & P 500 is set to report earnings this week, bringing the reporting past the halfway mark. Monday McDonald's is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call with management at 8:30 a.m. What CNBC is watching: Pfizer is coming into this latest earnings report limping. What history shows: Starbucks only beats earnings expectations 55% of the time, according to Bespoke, but the stock averages a 0.5% gain on earnings days. What history shows: Apple shares tend to do well on earnings days, averaging a 1.3% advance, according to Bespoke.

Persons: It's, Oppenheimer, Brian Bittner, PFE, Kif Leswing, Cowen, Andrew Charles, bode, Tim Cook, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Pfizer, Meta, CNBC, Investment, AMD, Nvidia, Starbucks, Corporate Locations: U.S, Covid, China

☆ 'One of the cheapest stocks': Bank of America just upgraded these 3 luxury names in Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America upgraded three luxury stocks that are bucking the negative trends afflicting the broader sector in Europe. The investment bank expects profit margins to decline by one percentage point for the sector even as third-quarter revenue is seen growing modestly. Meanwhile, the investment bank upgraded Ermenegildo Zegna and Pandora to buy, and Hugo Boss to neutral from underperform. The investment bank believes a similar pattern will likely emerge in Europe with spending on the continent peaking early this year. Despite Pandora shares' 45% rally this year, the Bank of America analyst still considers it "one of the cheapest stocks in all of Consumer Discretionary."

Persons: Prada, Tod, Pandora, Hugo Boss, Ashley Wallace, Wallace, Pandora Wallace Organizations: of America, Bank of America, underperform, Zegna Bank of America Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, China

☆ TD Cowen downgrades coffee giant over China macroeconomic headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should be cautious on Starbucks stock, according to TD Cowen. Starbucks stock has slipped more than 2% from the start of the year and was off 1.45% in premarket trading Tuesday. SBUX YTD mountain Starbucks stock has pulled back 2.4% from the start of 2023. Charles also noted U.S. headwinds associated with slower month-over-month non-farm payroll increases, which could be reflected in Starbucks' morning business. "Starbucks' morning-oriented business tracks changes in payrolls as changes in the number of commuters naturally impacts morning routines," Charles said.

Persons: TD Cowen, Andrew Charles, Charles, Michael Bloom Locations: China

"I used to love buying branded clothes," said teacher Zhang as she sifted through a pile of garments priced between 15 and 50 yuan ($2-$7). With wages and pensions hardly budging and the job market highly uncertain as more than one in five young Chinese remain unemployed, households' confidence and spending power are low in the barely growing economy. The real estate sector, one of the pillars of the economy, is struggling with massive debt. "One of my customers is a rich woman who used to go to Japan for shopping, but now she comes to my store," said Wang. ($1 = 7.3179 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Winni Zhou in Shanghai; editing by Marius Zaharia and Miral FahmyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Amy Zhang, Zhang, Becky Liu, Gucci, Kering, Lu, Yunshan, I've, Wang, Winni Zhou, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, China, LVMH, Japan, Shanghai

☆ Dollar rises on robust U.S. economy, yuan sinks to 16-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. China's onshore yuan slid to a 16-year low, under pressure from a property slump, weak consumer spending and shrinking credit growth in the world's second-largest economy. ONSHORE YUAN HIT 2007 LEVELSThe onshore yuan sank to 7.3296 per dollar, its weakest since December 2007. The Australian dollar was about flat at $0.6384, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% at $0.5885, with both languishing near their recent 10-month lows. “We see yuan staying under pressure (against the dollar) in the near term," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.

Persons: Florence Lo, Kirstine Kundby, Joseph Capurso, Becky Liu, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Zhou, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, U.S ., Nielsen, Danske Bank, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Standard Chartered Bank, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, China's, Japan, Asia, Bank

And, in the meantime, our China-focused names are poised to ride out the storm, while finding alternate routes to growth. Beyond the housing-sector woes, manufacturing activity is shrinking, a youth unemployment crisis is a ballooning, and consumer spending remains sluggish. With these macroeconomic headwinds holding back growth for some of the Club's key holdings, here's why we're sticking with these China-exposed names — and how each is responding. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Lauder, Estee Lauder, we're, Tim Cook, That's, Bernstein, WYNN, Wynn, Stifel, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Yan Daming Organizations: Wall, Research, CNBC, Big Tech, Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Wynn, Visual China, Getty Locations: China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Hainan, India, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Americas, Europe, U.S, Macao, Wynn, Nanjing, Shanghai

☆ Exclusive: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The swaps allow exporters to place their dollars with banks and get yuan instead, but through a contract that will eventually reverse the flows and give them back their dollars. However, while they remove a much-needed source of dollar supplies into spot yuan markets, analysts reckon Chinese monetary authorities can't really force exporters to convert dollars. When exporters swap higher-yielding dollars for the cheaper yuan for even 3 months, they get local currency for business needs and also earn a pick-up of an annualised 3.5% on the swap deal. "By trading FX swaps, exporters can postpone their settlements while meeting their yuan demand," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. Exporters' swaps, meanwhile, give state banks a pile of dollars to use in their yuan operations, in which they can undertake swaps to acquire the dollars from the onshore forwards market and sell them in the spot market to stem fast yuan declines.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ding, Gary Ng, Becky Liu, Jindong Zhang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Standard Chartered Bank, China Merchants Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, U.S, Shanghai, China, Natixis, Singapore

A record 38 QDII funds had been launched this year until August 17, outpacing the 31 funds launched in 2022, Morningstar data shows. Tianhong, which is planning new QDII products, obtained a $120 million fresh QDII quota in July, less than it had hoped for. Rather than foreign capital selling China equities, this time it's Chinese investors’ outbound investment,” Liu said. HUGE DEMANDThe QDII program, launched in 2006, remains a key outbound investment channel for mainland Chinese investors, alongside the Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership (QDLP) programme. Tracy Liu, an individual investor working in the information technology industry, invested in an India-focused QDII fund in March.

Persons: Aly, Ivan Shi, Liu Dong, Becky Liu, Liu, ” Liu, Desiree Wang, Tracy Liu, Summer Zhen, Samuel Shen, Jason Xue, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Domestic Institutional, Nasdaq, Ben Advisors, Connect, Bond, U.S, Dow Jones, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Tianhong, Management, Ant Financial, Standard Chartered Bank, Reuters, Qualified Domestic Limited, Asset Management Association of China, Guangfa NASDAQ, Technology, Morgan Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management China, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, U.S, HONG KONG, SHANGHAI, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, outflows, Japan, Russia

Government policymakers struggling to address the problem are now leaning on colleges to do more to find jobs for graduates. The job performance of school administrators was already tied to the percentage of their students who find employment after graduation. In some cases, the scrutiny is so intense that students resort to fabricating job offers to placate school officials. Over the last three decades, as China’s economy grew by leaps and bounds, more people attended college, seeing it as a pathway to promising careers. This year’s estimated graduating class of 11.6 million students is expected to be the largest ever, and future classes are expected to be even bigger.

Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, China Macroeconomy, Renmin University of China Locations: China

☆ China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate will drop to 1.9% from 2%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The rate cut reveals “growing concerns among policymakers” about the health of China’s recovery, Capital Economics analysts said on Tuesday. “The … rate cut came earlier and sharper than our and market expectations, highlighting the sense of urgency to alleviate economic momentum and business confidence,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. That rate cut also came as a surprise and followed a week of turmoil in global financial markets triggered by the failure of some regional US banks. In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.

Persons: ”, Becky Liu, Zhaopeng Xing, Betty Wang, Yi Gang, Larry Hu, “ Governor Yi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, PMI, ANZ Research, Macquarie Group, “ Locations: Hong Kong, China

As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.

☆ Volatility in yuan spurs bets China will widen its band
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - As macroeconomic risks induce unprecedented levels of volatility in China's yuan, investors are betting that authorities may widen the currency's tight trading band for first time since 2014 to allow market forces greater say. Day-to-day yuan volatility has been as high as 16% on some days in October, compared with a tame 1% to 4% range in the months and years before. Policy sources have told Reuters they have considered widening the trading band over the past few years to show their commitment to long-term market reforms. Rising volatility in yuan-rouble trading earlier this year prompted the central bank to double the trading band for the pair to 10% in March. Yet, most analysts who think a band widening is due also do not think it is imminent.

☆ Taiwan electric scooter firm Gogoro delaying China expansion
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TAIPEI, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Taiwanese electric scooter maker Gogoro Inc (GGR.O) is delaying its expansion plans in China due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty there and putting more focus on India and Indonesia, its chief financial officer told Reuters on Friday. As well as making its own vehicles, Gogoro has electric battery and other partnerships with vehicle makers including India's Hero MotoCorp (HROM.NS) and China's Dachangjiang Group and Yadea Group Holdings (1585.HK). Gogoro, known for its green-hued battery swap distribution network for riders, has ambitious plans, seeing potential to replace vast fleets of heavily-polluting, gasoline-powered scooters with electric two-wheelers as Asia's metropolises bid to improve air quality. With China being a challenging place, Gogoro is looking at its plans elsewhere, Aitken said. In Taiwan, Gogoro has a partnership with Foxconn (2317.TW), best known for assembling Apple Inc (AAPL.O) iPhones but with its own huge electric vehicle ambitions.

☆ Macro bets help hedge funds ride rough Chinese markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The hedge funds that have managed to weather and outperform China's bumpy stock markets so far this year say betting on big-picture macroeconomic changes have helped them. One such fund is Stanley Tao's $230 million Golden Nest Greater China Fund. The hedge fund posted approximately a 2.4% net return for September, according to internal estimates, and is down 1.2% for the first nine months. That compares with MSCI China's (.dMICN00000PUS) roughly 30% decline in the nine months to September, marking the worst first nine months since 2008. Macro strategies are the biggest winners this year, with hedge funds cashing in on the volatility spawned by the differing pace of global rate rises and regulatory changes -- seizing opportunities that didn't exist during a decade of uniform easy monetary policies everywhere.

☆ Explainer: What's inside China's toolbox to rein in excess yuan weakness?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The local currency also looks set for the biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified official and market exchange rates. The rapid yuan declines prompted the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to lower the amount of foreign exchange financial institutions must hold as reserves to rein in weakness. The PBOC has been setting firmer-than-expected daily yuan midpoint fixings since late August to prevent excess yuan weakness, as the onshore spot yuan can only trade in a 2% narrow range around the midpoint. The central bank adjusted the methodology a few times before suspending it in October 2020. "The yuan exchange rate level itself is not the most important, the nature of the issue is whether China's cross-border capital flows remain stable," said Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities.

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